Thames Valley Mayor Plans Spark Political Debate

Councils in Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon have been discussing a new elected mayor and a mayoral strategic authority for over a year. But Oxfordshire County Council's Liberal Democrat leadership reportedly withdrew support for a transitional authority on Wednesday 17 June, leaving the plans in doubt.

The big question: who would win a Thames Valley mayoral contest? We can make a prediction from recent elections and estimates.

The last area-wide poll was the 2024 Police and Crime Commissioner election, won by Matthew Barber for the Conservatives. Remove Buckinghamshire votes and the notional result would have seen Labour's Tim Starkey win with a 4,960-vote majority.

But Swindon is part of the talks. In Swindon's May council elections the Conservatives topped the poll with 51,126 votes, Labour had 48,189 and Reform UK 45,670 - a boost for the Tories' chances in a mayoral race.

A mayoral contest would be in 2028 if the authority goes ahead. The national picture has shifted since July 2024: Reform UK rising in polls and the Greens gathering left-wing support under Zack Polanski, after Hannah Spencer's by-election win in Gorton and Denton. Neither Reform nor the Greens stood in the 2024 PCC race, and PCCs are due to be abolished in May 2028.

Using 2024 general election results to estimate Reform and Green support across Oxfordshire and Berkshire is complicated. Reform did not stand in Earley and Woodley, Maidenhead or Oxford East, so notional votes were added in those areas.

When all those figures are tottted up, the Conservatives are predicted to win the first Thames Valley mayoral election, with Labour second, Reform third and the Liberal Democrats fourth.

Notional Reform UK votes included in the tally are 8,400 in Earley and Woodley, 6,600 in Maidenhead and 3,000 in Oxford East.

James Aldridge, Local Democracy Reporter